From 3% to 42.3%: The Marketing Strategy Behind Anura Kumara Dissanayake's 2024 Election Victory

In the 76 years of Sri Lankan history, for the first time, the country's leadership has shifted from traditional political parties to a new alliance, through the people’s vote. 42.3% of voters now support Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD), with the remaining population split among a fractured opposition. Remarkably, AKD had secured only 3% of the vote in the 2019 presidential election. The journey from 3% to 42.3% is filled with valuable marketing lessons. Let’s explore the marketing principles they applied, knowingly or unknowingly, to capture the country's leadership.

1. Identifying the Right Target Audience

Many believe the right target for political marketing is the mass electorate, focusing on all eligible voters aged 19 and above. Some experts even segment voters based on basic demographics such as age, gender, or geography. However, these approaches are inadequate in the Sri Lankan political context. So, who truly forms the audience that can win an election?

An analysis of elections from 2010 to 2019 reveals that political parties that won the urban and suburban middle class consistently succeeded. This segment eventually became trendsetters. In past and current elections, swing seats, which represent around 90% of urban or suburban areas, hold the highest concentration of middle-class voters. These areas are home to professionals such as engineers, doctors, bankers, accountants, marketers, teachers, and ICT specialists. Election winners have always captured these seats.

Table 1:  Result percentages of swing seats in the last four presidential elections in Sri Lanka

Moreover, left-wing strongholds, where large urban and suburban populations live, are critical in presidential elections. Historically, left-leaning seats have consistently backed leftist candidates, including the Rajapaksas, until their decline due to economic mismanagement. This opened an opportunity for the NPP (National People’s Power) to target these segments.

Table 2:  Result percentages of left-wing seats where majority of middle-class people living in the last four presidential elections in Sri Lanka

Table 3:  Result percentages of left-wing district people living in the last four presidential elections in Sri Lanka

The NPP effectively identified its target audience: the middle-class living in urban areas, suburbs, and left-wing strongholds. AKD garnered an average of 47% in swing seats, 54% in left-wing seats, and 46% from left-wing districts. By focusing on these crucial segments, the NPP’s marketing approach adhered to the principle of effective market segmentation.

Why the Middle Class is Key

The middle class suffered the most during Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s presidency, as well as in the recovery phase under Ranil Wickremesinghe. Although Wickremesinghe implemented IMF-recommended reforms to stabilize the country, these measures squeezed the middle class, reducing disposable income and increasing dissatisfaction. The middle class, which also plays a significant role in driving Sri Lanka’s economy, sought a leader who would listen to their concerns and offer viable solutions.

NPP capitalized on this discontent by breaking down the middle class into more granular segments, focusing on areas with high concentrations of this demographic. Identifying the right target audience is the foundation of any successful marketing campaign. Many organizations fail because they misidentify their target market. In contrast, AKD's campaign serves as an excellent example of how understanding consumer behavior can influence marketing decisions.

2. Positioning Strategy for the Right Segments

After identifying the right audience, the next critical step is positioning the message. How should AKD and NPP position themselves to appeal to frustrated middle-class voters in swing and left-wing seats?

The answer lies in understanding what this demographic has demanded in recent presidential elections. For example, in 2005, national security and the LTTE threat were top concerns. In 2010, the middle class celebrated the end of the war, while the opposition focused on corruption. In 2014, the middle class demanded an end to Rajapaksa-era corruption and mismanagement. By 2019, security and stability once again became critical due to the Easter bombings.

By 2021, however, Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s popularity plummeted, as the COVID-19 crisis exposed his government’s incompetence. The NPP recognized the middle-class’s frustrations and began targeting this audience more effectively. Drawing from the "Diffusion of Innovation" marketing theory, they focused first on the "innovators" and "early adopters" in the middle class—professionals, decision-makers, and businesspeople.

NPP organized gatherings and discussions with various professional groups, engaging with them directly to develop plans for the country's future. They released speeches and debates featuring AKD and other thought leaders on social media, which drove high levels of engagement and word-of-mouth promotion among innovators and early adopters. Gradually, NPP positioned itself as the party capable of providing the thoughtful leadership that the middle class craved.

Leveraging Economic Crises and Public Sentiment

By 2022, the economic crisis had deepened, with fuel and gas shortages, long queues, and growing public frustration. Protests erupted across the country, demanding Gotabaya Rajapaksa's resignation. This situation further elevated AKD’s position as a potential economic savior. As more people engaged with NPP’s ideologies, their campaign gained traction.

In the months leading up to the 2024 presidential election, NPP executed a well-rounded promotional strategy across TV, radio, print, and digital platforms, including Google and Facebook ads. Their campaign slogan, "A Rich Country - A Beautiful Life," aligned perfectly with their positioning strategy. Another effective theme, "The Country to Anura," reinforced AKD's image as the nation’s next leader, much like India’s BJP campaign in 2014, which positioned Narendra Modi with "Time for Change, Time for Modi."

Marketing Lessons from NPP’s 2024 Presidential Campaign

The first lesson is the importance of identifying the right target audience. Without proper audience segmentation, campaigns can waste resources without achieving the desired outcomes. It takes in-depth research and data analysis to understand consumer behavior before segmenting and selecting the appropriate target.

Second, positioning is a significant challenge. Detailed consumer insights, derived from research, help inform the most effective positioning strategy for the target audience.

Lastly, creative and promotional strategies must align with the positioning strategy to deliver maximum results. AKD’s campaign shows how marketing principles can be applied to political contexts to shape leadership outcomes.

Through this analysis, we can see how political campaigns, like marketing, are about understanding and addressing the needs and desires of target audiences. The NPP's success demonstrates the power of effective marketing in the political arena.